The Wall Street Journal recently published an article discussing a theoretical collapse of the United States in 2010. Igor Panarin presented his theory in 1998, and cites mass immigration, economic collapse, and moral decline as key triggers to a second American civil war that will fragment the US into four pieces, with Alaska going back to Russia and Hawaii ending up in Japanese or Chinese hands.
Here’s what Panarin’s theoretical United States region would look like, post second American civil war:
Now, there are a few things I agreed with right off the bat, like California being the dominant part of the “California Republic,” and Texas forming the core of the “Texas Republic.” However, anyone who has ever been to both New York state and South Carolina will know that these two areas would never ally with each other in the event of a split. It’s hard enough getting the people of Northern Virginia and the rest of the Commonwealth to agree on things; trueblood Southerns and Yankees will kill each other instantly.
So, it got me thinking. What would the US-region look like after a second civil war? Here’s my map:
I wrote a big ol’ breakdown of the different nation-states and why the aligned this way versus that way, etc. I was going to post it up along with my map, but when I explained it to my co-workers they all looked a little something like this:
so I will probably hold onto it for another time. ;)
Anyway, what do you think? If the US were to collapse, how would you align the states?
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I’ve been meaning to post something on this over at my place. More to come later, but my biggest bone of contention is that all the maps I have seen divide along state lines. While I understand that is for purposes of simplicity and that it isn’t a big deal in some of the smaller states, it is a big deal as you go further west. One example from an area I am intimately familiar with, having grown up and currently going to school there: the Midwest. There’s no way Nebraska divides neatly in one or the other direction. The eastern third to half of the state would align with Iowa, Missouri, possibly South Dakota, etc. while the remaining west would align with Colorado, Wyoming, etc. The same would probably happen in Kansas. The cultural differences in the state are that stark.
Definitely an interesting though exercise, though.
I think state lines would work, governors, agreed upon borders, national guard units, it all works.
The big thing missing is you really think the Republic of Texas wouldn’t conquer Mexico almost immediately?
As a canadian, I have no clue how things in the states work but I want to read your write-up on why things would turn out that way anyways, please!
not sure about the whole california thing… I mostly think it would revert back to mexico, as in its pre statehood days…
I wouldn’t do the thing on the basis of existing state boundaries, to begin with. To take only the West Coast as an example, the area around Seattle, and perhaps the relatively heavily populated corridor running south as far as Eugene, would likely end up a separate district from the rural areas to the east and south, and perhaps be aligned with (or absorbed by) the similarly urban Vancouver area to the north. In California, you’d end up with a slender coastal region split from the rural areas inland.
Assuming your Utah designation is based on Mormonism, I would extend its borders to include lots of Idaho, northern Arizona, and some other contiguous areas.
You could go into detailed analyses of all the states to figure out where the breaks occur. Assuming there’s actually a *war* involved in the civil war here, though, there’s no way the combatants will all end up respecting the existing state boundaries.
It would have to be one hell of a war for any part of the continental U.S. to ally itself with a foreign country. I could see Texas trying to conquer Mexico after the civil war is over but I can’t see any part of the main 48 allowing itself to knowingly be controlled by a non American ruling body.
Alaska and Hawaii would be gone in a matter of months. With the country split into factions no one will care about the red headed step children. I kind of agree with your map but I agree that state lines will mean very little.
I could see a huge immigrant army popping up in California. Texas will be too proud to ask for help from those dirty Mexicans but the hippies in Cali will welcome some grunts to go to the front. I think that as long as the communication lines are available the went coast would be allied with the new US (North and/or South). Having the ability to lob missiles into the center of the country from the coast I see the militia force in the middle of the country taking heavy casualties and then continuing the war guerrilla style for YEARS. Some yutz would of course smuggle a dirty bomb into a heavily populated area and we would have a smoldering crater where Boston, San Fran, Orlando, etc used to be.
After the nuke whoever took over as the new super power (I love you Canada) would feel compelled to step in and send some peace keeping forces in which will make everyone in America go “well… that seems somewhat patronizing” while gladly accepting our box of canned goods and Puma sweat suits.
I don’t really see it as a fake civil war, but as a plausible reality myself. Most nations usually don’t stand the test of time, and in one way or another they all eventually crumble.
With the One wanting to be the new Lincoln this is becoming more and more likely.
It may be the only way for the American people to get justice.
there was a meeting in the early 90′s between kkk, aryan nation, communist party, nation of islam as to how they would divide the spoils of the collapse of america. northwest was to go Aryan, south to kkk, midwest to nation islam, northeast and california area to communists. I was in law enforcement at time got info from fed surveylance of meeting. Do not know what mix will be since latin american invasion James Edward Almos warned would happen.
I dont see the divided parts being controlled by china or canada and especially not mexico…i heard on the news people are saying mexico is close to total anarchy the government cant control the drug cartels so i cant see the south being dominated by them… and canada…really? nothing against the canadian guy here just saying
is it not plausible to look at the last election maps, and assume the states would divide along the lines red and blue?
The whole ting is deeply troubling. I read about the Russian’s theory back when it was first published and it didn’t bother me much then. You are right about Texas, South Carolina and New York. Texas would nuke Mexico just because they still “remember the Alamo” and the satisfaction of knowing they actually won something on their own. They would NEVER submit to influence from Mexico. I would also have to see the state borders being more fluid and changing. New Mexico, or at least parts of it would be claimed by Texas if anything for White Sands. (Forgot about that, didn’t you?) Arizona would be included in the California electric grid or perhaps split between them, Utah and the Montana/Colorado bunch.
It would be a horrible, nightmarish scenario and I could even see one area going nuclear on another.
What scares me now is that it might become reality. (I take umbrage with USSA speaking of Obama as the One. You sound like like you’ve been drinking the Fox news Koolade.) I do see Obama’s election as a possible tipping point as it has brought out all the right wing roaches from behind the woodwork. They will do anything and say ANYTHING to bring him down without regard to the damage they are doing to American society as a whole. The hatreds, old hatreds that have been stirred by these nut jobs are terrifying and let’s face it, it’s based on race. This has nothing to do with health care. When Clinton tried it America yawned. Now we have southerners screaming insults at the President, the elected President of our nation before a joint session during a speech. The hatred on Joe Wilson’s face was obvious. That is one son of the Confederacy that showed his stars and bars.
America has always been a society of different peoples living under a thin blanket of civility who are willing to work and live together if given enough room and the promise of the right to to life, liberty, etc. The right wing has been salivating for this time to come so they can rip that blanket to shreds. It is this kind of thinking that leads idiots to action based on fear. The right has instilled even greater fear in an already frightened and unstable society. Goerring said something like get them to fear something. Once they fear it you can easily turn that fear to hate. Once they hate, you can easily lead them anywhere.
Who are the real fascists here? Those morons at fox don’t even know what fascism is. One thing is for sure. We have been drawn closer to the edge.
One thing you might look at is what would the rest of the world do if America folded up. Without us China has no one to steal secrets from and even though they own us and might want to take over they would have a hell of a time holding us. Matter of fact, it probably would make America join back together. Europe would chug along I suppose but the middle east, after some rejoicing would fall into chaos once all out money was spent. They would be back to killing each other over water holes in the desert inside of a year. Israel would make short work of anyone stupid enough to attack them. Russia might take back Alaska but for what? Pride? They don’t need the oil. Too big to occupy and not enough to fight over.
You have created one hell of a thought provoking piece here. You should send the link to both Fox and MSNBC. Right now I am scared to death this shit might happen.
The reason behind Canadian Influence in the Northwest is because Canada being the largest and most competeant neighbour of the United States would by default be forced to occupy American Regions due to the threat of the various American factions going nuclear, the Texans are too attached to the big f the world button, and so are the Yankees, so Canadian Peackeepers would occupy various regions, and the various Factions would try desperately to use Canada as some form of ‘one-up’ because of this. That and I fully expect millions of Americans would flood the Canadian Border to as refugees.
Alaska and Hawaii would be annexed by Canada, by the way, being a Canadian myself I know that most Canadians consider these states to be more ours than yours anyway.
China is basically the next Soviet Union and I find easy to beleive that California would bend over to China.
The state boundaries would be roughly emplaced if and when the civil war is over and there are still more than two or three factions left.
In regard to Europe I suspect they will be busy uniting as a single Country only to have to fight Nationalist forces that want to split it back up.
Russia will finally have the chance to unify it and her former soviet Cousins that have not joined the EU.
The Middle East will no longer have the American pig-dog left to fight so it will probably either follow Dubai’s Example and smarten up or follow Israels example and continue battling one another.
Africa and South American nations will actually begin progressing on their own in their own ways making these nations new powerhouses on the globe. Because despite the news and the various claims against Mexico and Brazil, in the event of an American Civil War, they would dominate latin America and be rising superpowers in their own right.