By January 13, 2009

Hypothesis: Fake American Civil War 2 Geopolitical Outcome

The Wall Street Journal recently published an article discussing a theoretical collapse of the United States in 2010. Igor Panarin presented his theory in 1998, and cites mass immigration, economic collapse, and moral decline as key triggers to a second American civil war that will fragment the US into four pieces, with Alaska going back to Russia and Hawaii ending up in Japanese or Chinese hands.

Here’s what Panarin’s theoretical United States region would look like, post second American civil war:

http://gallery.drfaulken.com/d/5373-2/russian_version.jpg

Now, there are a few things I agreed with right off the bat, like California being the dominant part of the “California Republic,” and Texas forming the core of the “Texas Republic.” However, anyone who has ever been to both New York state and South Carolina will know that these two areas would never ally with each other in the event of a split. It’s hard enough getting the people of Northern Virginia and the rest of the Commonwealth to agree on things; trueblood Southerns and Yankees will kill each other instantly.

So, it got me thinking. What would the US-region look like after a second civil war? Here’s my map:

http://gallery.drfaulken.com/d/5367-4/drfaulken_new_america.png

I wrote a big ol’ breakdown of the different nation-states and why the aligned this way versus that way, etc. I was going to post it up along with my map, but when I explained it to my co-workers they all looked a little something like this:

http://gallery.drfaulken.com/d/5399-2/bigugh.gif

so I will probably hold onto it for another time. 😉

Anyway, what do you think? If the US were to collapse, how would you align the states?

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21 Comments on "Hypothesis: Fake American Civil War 2 Geopolitical Outcome"

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  1. Mike says:

    I’ve been meaning to post something on this over at my place. More to come later, but my biggest bone of contention is that all the maps I have seen divide along state lines. While I understand that is for purposes of simplicity and that it isn’t a big deal in some of the smaller states, it is a big deal as you go further west. One example from an area I am intimately familiar with, having grown up and currently going to school there: the Midwest. There’s no way Nebraska divides neatly in one or the other direction. The eastern third to half of the state would align with Iowa, Missouri, possibly South Dakota, etc. while the remaining west would align with Colorado, Wyoming, etc. The same would probably happen in Kansas. The cultural differences in the state are that stark.

    Definitely an interesting though exercise, though.

  2. Ed says:

    I think state lines would work, governors, agreed upon borders, national guard units, it all works.

    The big thing missing is you really think the Republic of Texas wouldn’t conquer Mexico almost immediately?

  3. Agreschn says:

    As a canadian, I have no clue how things in the states work but I want to read your write-up on why things would turn out that way anyways, please!

  4. Markie says:

    not sure about the whole california thing… I mostly think it would revert back to mexico, as in its pre statehood days…

  5. Durf says:

    I wouldn’t do the thing on the basis of existing state boundaries, to begin with. To take only the West Coast as an example, the area around Seattle, and perhaps the relatively heavily populated corridor running south as far as Eugene, would likely end up a separate district from the rural areas to the east and south, and perhaps be aligned with (or absorbed by) the similarly urban Vancouver area to the north. In California, you’d end up with a slender coastal region split from the rural areas inland.

    Assuming your Utah designation is based on Mormonism, I would extend its borders to include lots of Idaho, northern Arizona, and some other contiguous areas.

    You could go into detailed analyses of all the states to figure out where the breaks occur. Assuming there’s actually a *war* involved in the civil war here, though, there’s no way the combatants will all end up respecting the existing state boundaries.

  6. Tommy says:

    It would have to be one hell of a war for any part of the continental U.S. to ally itself with a foreign country. I could see Texas trying to conquer Mexico after the civil war is over but I can’t see any part of the main 48 allowing itself to knowingly be controlled by a non American ruling body.

    Alaska and Hawaii would be gone in a matter of months. With the country split into factions no one will care about the red headed step children. I kind of agree with your map but I agree that state lines will mean very little.

    I could see a huge immigrant army popping up in California. Texas will be too proud to ask for help from those dirty Mexicans but the hippies in Cali will welcome some grunts to go to the front. I think that as long as the communication lines are available the went coast would be allied with the new US (North and/or South). Having the ability to lob missiles into the center of the country from the coast I see the militia force in the middle of the country taking heavy casualties and then continuing the war guerrilla style for YEARS. Some yutz would of course smuggle a dirty bomb into a heavily populated area and we would have a smoldering crater where Boston, San Fran, Orlando, etc used to be.

    After the nuke whoever took over as the new super power (I love you Canada) would feel compelled to step in and send some peace keeping forces in which will make everyone in America go “well… that seems somewhat patronizing” while gladly accepting our box of canned goods and Puma sweat suits.

  7. Spectre says:

    I don’t really see it as a fake civil war, but as a plausible reality myself. Most nations usually don’t stand the test of time, and in one way or another they all eventually crumble.

  8. USSA says:

    With the One wanting to be the new Lincoln this is becoming more and more likely.
    It may be the only way for the American people to get justice.

  9. kb says:

    there was a meeting in the early 90’s between kkk, aryan nation, communist party, nation of islam as to how they would divide the spoils of the collapse of america. northwest was to go Aryan, south to kkk, midwest to nation islam, northeast and california area to communists. I was in law enforcement at time got info from fed surveylance of meeting. Do not know what mix will be since latin american invasion James Edward Almos warned would happen.

  10. sj says:

    I dont see the divided parts being controlled by china or canada and especially not mexico…i heard on the news people are saying mexico is close to total anarchy the government cant control the drug cartels so i cant see the south being dominated by them… and canada…really? nothing against the canadian guy here just saying

  11. peachmelba says:

    is it not plausible to look at the last election maps, and assume the states would divide along the lines red and blue?

  12. Northstar says:

    The whole ting is deeply troubling. I read about the Russian’s theory back when it was first published and it didn’t bother me much then. You are right about Texas, South Carolina and New York. Texas would nuke Mexico just because they still “remember the Alamo” and the satisfaction of knowing they actually won something on their own. They would NEVER submit to influence from Mexico. I would also have to see the state borders being more fluid and changing. New Mexico, or at least parts of it would be claimed by Texas if anything for White Sands. (Forgot about that, didn’t you?) Arizona would be included in the California electric grid or perhaps split between them, Utah and the Montana/Colorado bunch.

    It would be a horrible, nightmarish scenario and I could even see one area going nuclear on another.

    What scares me now is that it might become reality. (I take umbrage with USSA speaking of Obama as the One. You sound like like you’ve been drinking the Fox news Koolade.) I do see Obama’s election as a possible tipping point as it has brought out all the right wing roaches from behind the woodwork. They will do anything and say ANYTHING to bring him down without regard to the damage they are doing to American society as a whole. The hatreds, old hatreds that have been stirred by these nut jobs are terrifying and let’s face it, it’s based on race. This has nothing to do with health care. When Clinton tried it America yawned. Now we have southerners screaming insults at the President, the elected President of our nation before a joint session during a speech. The hatred on Joe Wilson’s face was obvious. That is one son of the Confederacy that showed his stars and bars.

    America has always been a society of different peoples living under a thin blanket of civility who are willing to work and live together if given enough room and the promise of the right to to life, liberty, etc. The right wing has been salivating for this time to come so they can rip that blanket to shreds. It is this kind of thinking that leads idiots to action based on fear. The right has instilled even greater fear in an already frightened and unstable society. Goerring said something like get them to fear something. Once they fear it you can easily turn that fear to hate. Once they hate, you can easily lead them anywhere.

    Who are the real fascists here? Those morons at fox don’t even know what fascism is. One thing is for sure. We have been drawn closer to the edge.

    One thing you might look at is what would the rest of the world do if America folded up. Without us China has no one to steal secrets from and even though they own us and might want to take over they would have a hell of a time holding us. Matter of fact, it probably would make America join back together. Europe would chug along I suppose but the middle east, after some rejoicing would fall into chaos once all out money was spent. They would be back to killing each other over water holes in the desert inside of a year. Israel would make short work of anyone stupid enough to attack them. Russia might take back Alaska but for what? Pride? They don’t need the oil. Too big to occupy and not enough to fight over.

    You have created one hell of a thought provoking piece here. You should send the link to both Fox and MSNBC. Right now I am scared to death this shit might happen.

  13. John McMahon says:

    The reason behind Canadian Influence in the Northwest is because Canada being the largest and most competeant neighbour of the United States would by default be forced to occupy American Regions due to the threat of the various American factions going nuclear, the Texans are too attached to the big f the world button, and so are the Yankees, so Canadian Peackeepers would occupy various regions, and the various Factions would try desperately to use Canada as some form of ‘one-up’ because of this. That and I fully expect millions of Americans would flood the Canadian Border to as refugees.

    Alaska and Hawaii would be annexed by Canada, by the way, being a Canadian myself I know that most Canadians consider these states to be more ours than yours anyway.

    China is basically the next Soviet Union and I find easy to beleive that California would bend over to China.

    The state boundaries would be roughly emplaced if and when the civil war is over and there are still more than two or three factions left.

    In regard to Europe I suspect they will be busy uniting as a single Country only to have to fight Nationalist forces that want to split it back up.

    Russia will finally have the chance to unify it and her former soviet Cousins that have not joined the EU.

    The Middle East will no longer have the American pig-dog left to fight so it will probably either follow Dubai’s Example and smarten up or follow Israels example and continue battling one another.

    Africa and South American nations will actually begin progressing on their own in their own ways making these nations new powerhouses on the globe. Because despite the news and the various claims against Mexico and Brazil, in the event of an American Civil War, they would dominate latin America and be rising superpowers in their own right.

  14. norman says:

    to be honest i think that it will split into east of the mississippi the north west and some of the south west (some parts of states will fall inline with mexico cause thats the majority of the pop) and california will probably turn into the american ugoslovia and then the war will come. as for alaska and hawaii im not real sure but i figure hawaii will be indipendent and alaska would have to choose to beapart of something else or indipendent

  15. Doug Johnson says:

    Interesting, I see that people drop in from time to time and post a comment. I would agree with your map, not the Russian’s. To fine tune it further, I would even break it down into megatropolis vs country folk and that divide exists in every state.

    Short of federal troops, if they would still exist as coherent units, intervening to maintain order in the cities, the good old boys would make short work of the gangland armies and American loving patriots would quickly exercise control over the whole nation.

  16. Shadow Yura says:

    Ever watch the series “Jericho”?
    I’ve seen it 3 times…..makes you wonder about our WONDERFUL Government!!!! ???

  17. C McGee says:

    Well, this is not bad but I have some thoughts on it myself. The collapse of America will be an economical one, with the initial push coming from Texas and Oklahoma to succeed from the Union due to economic disasters, and unwillingness to share in the process of fixing it due to them attempting to avoid it. The economic fall of America will result into a greater intrusion of states right and identity. It will be Texas first initiating the succession with OK and LA following suit. This will cause a major alarm and attempt to stop the succession. The attempt will fail in a disasterous way, because the Union is not prepared for it mentally. The Union will go to the remaining states for support, but will eventually lead to other states to be pushing for there own succession. The states will start to first work more independently with the Midwest and NorthEastern United States remaining as a Union. Southern states will form a Confederacy. and the west will break more independent of each other. The weaker states will eventually find themselves being either threatened into submission by larger and stronger states. California will make a push on AZ, NV and Utah, resources. MT, ID & WY will join a coalition with OR & WA against the CA threat. Border clashes will break out there over precious resources. A War will break out amongst the remaining Union States and the Southern Confederacy over water rights and border disputes. TX, OK, LA form a new republic with NM joining for protection and you will see civil strife as moral and economic difference tear up states like KS and MO. NE, IA, ND, SD will attempt to go it alone but aventually align with either Northwest States, the Remaining Union or Possibly Texas Republic. Hawaii will declare independence and Alaska will stay within the Union after a strong show of force from Washington. There will be a big war eventually fought over Alaska and its abundant Natural resources. There will also be conflict with Texas Republic and Southern Confederacy over the Gulf with a Treaty eventually being signed. Liberalism will take hold in both California Republic, NorthWest States and the Old Union. Capitalism will grow in the Southern States. Economic booms will be witness in the Capitalist States and slow Economical recovery in the Liberal states. There will eventually be treaties signed amongst all the newly formed countries after about 20 years of strife and distrust and a more peaceful times will follow the 20 years.

  18. Gary says:

    I believe that Texas has been a Republic since joining the United States back in the mid 1800’s. I also understand that Oklahoma has already voted itself a soveriegn state. There are other states ready to declare themselves soveriegn. Something drastic has to happen because it’s evident our past and present congress haven’t lived up to the oath they gave to the American people. This is a time when each person should give some serious consideration where they want to live and quite possibly…die. It could very well be in our life time. I think the states will split along the borders of the existing times zones vertically. I would also draw an imaginary line from the east to the west coast, splitting the country horizontally through the middle of the country. It justs seems like these regions are already in place. Let’s pray our state militias are strong and prepared for foriegn troops on our soil…so much for the United Nations…

  19. adam gunari says:

    TEXAS WOULD NOT BE UNDER MEXICO. TEXAS HAS ONE OF THE BIGGEST NATIONAL GUARDS IN THE UNION. AND IF WE LEFT THE UNION WE WOULD HAVE ONE OF THE TOP 25 ECONOMIES IN THE WORLD!!

    TEXAS SECEDE!!!!!

  20. rene magritte says:

    I personally see the division taking place by natural boundaries such as mountains, rivers, etc. As for the grouping of states, I think it will follow long standing cultural, political and/or religious ties. Those with a history of financial cooperation will probably band together as well out of mutural support and survival. The truly scary version of this is with the carnage that took place during the first civil war using the weapons of that day, think of what is possible with the weapons possessed today.

    If any thinks that Washington and Wall Street will peacefully give up their stanglehold on power I suggest you take another drink of the Koolaide. Both have been successfully pitting us against one another for years and it is getting more so by the day. Whether its the poor vs. the rich, white against black, pro or anti, the pot is given a quick stir so that we lose sight of what the real motive is. When we are up to our armpits in alligators, it will be hard to remember that we went into the swamp to drain it.

  21. Jason says:

    You have new america (north) all screwed up. About the only thing southern new england has in common with northern new england is their football team. At one point a few years ago the NH government was contemplating putting up signs warning people about crossing into Mass… nh house bill 1412